New startup ideas · Consumer and commerce · Commerce and marketplaces
startup idea
Provenor
Machine learning that proves where every imported good actually came from.
Provenor sells enterprise import and sourcing teams a subscription platform that traces the true origin of goods through transshipment: entity-resolution ML over global trade filings, vessel AIS tracks, and corporate registries flags when a shipment labeled Vietnamese was actually laundered through a third country.
- Software subscription
- Enterprise
- $10-100B market
- Creates a new category
- Global from day one
5/5
venture judge
30
similar startups, last 2 years (166 all-time)
78%
of 3 nearest real companies still alive
yes
8 matching federal grants and programs
Direction supported by government programs and grants
Scorecard
One score that balances how trendy the idea is, the demand for it and its potential for 100x, with competition measured relative to every other idea in the catalog. Recent startup trends first, government priorities second.
48
Idea Score, 0-100 · raw 29.2 x 1.64
Crowded
competition: more crowded than 93% of ideas · headwind x0.53
+4.9
government priorities, secondary (286 matching grants)
Trend
26
Is the wave forming now? 2025-26 entrants vs 2023-24, rounds since 2025, the sector's live-batch direction, the 2026 trend analyst.
- Entrants 2025-26 vs 2023-24 (similar companies)45
- Rounds announced 2025+ in the sector8
- Sector direction (live batch)0
- 2026 trend analyst50
Demand
50
Does anyone want it? YC's current RFS, companies already paid for something similar, the operator judge, founders' yes-rate in decks, readers who would run the test.
- YC asks for it (current RFS: idea / sector)0
- Someone already pays (similar companies, recent / all-time)100
- Operator judge: real pain50
100x potential
74
Can it return a fund? The venture judge (double weight), market-size and moat axes, neighbours still alive, the technologist judge.
- Venture judge100
- Market size axis67
- Moat axis80
- Neighbours still alive20
- Technologist judge75
Score = 100 x cbrt(Trend x Demand x 100x) x (1 - 0.5 x crowding) + government bonus (max 5), calibrated so the 95th-percentile idea scores 90 (order never changes). A geometric mean: a weak pillar cannot be papered over. Percentiles are among the 272 ideas in the catalog; the terms matched were machine, learning, proves, imported, sells, enterprise, import, sourcing.
The idea in full
- What
- Provenor sells enterprise import and sourcing teams a subscription platform that traces the true origin of goods through transshipment: entity-resolution ML over global trade filings, vessel AIS tracks, and corporate registries flags when a shipment labeled Vietnamese was actually laundered through a third country. Compliance analysts start on a self-serve screening tier - upload a supplier list, get origin-risk scores - and accounts expand into enterprise contracts covering full import programs. The category is origin intelligence: not supplier questionnaires, but adversarial proof of provenance, and Provenor is building toward recognized-audit status with customs enforcement bodies so its attestations carry regulatory weight.
- Why now
- The US government is funding exactly this problem right now: the DRL Transshipment Supply Chain Tracing grant closes 2026-08-27, and three more ILAB and DRL programs on forced-labor imports and seafood supply chains close by 2026-09-21, meaning enforcement pressure on importers is rising on a knowable schedule.
- Wedge: first customer and entry point
- US and EU seafood and apparel importers facing detention risk, entered through a self-serve screen of their top 50 suppliers that surfaces one transshipment red flag they cannot ignore.
- Path to 100x
- Trade compliance software is a $10-100B market being repriced by forced-labor enforcement, and the company that becomes the recognized standard of origin proof gets written into every large importer's compliance program the way audit firms are. The regulatory moat compounds: recognized-attestation status plus the largest labeled corpus of transshipment cases makes Provenor's scores the ones customs authorities accept, and a new category - origin intelligence - is born with one default vendor.
- Ceiling
- If enforcement stays sporadic and fines stay small, origin proof remains a nice-to-have module inside broader compliance suites rather than a standalone category.
- Closest real companies, as the generator saw them
- Tarifflo Inc. addresses supply chain compliance broadly rather than adversarial origin tracing; Tradeit Co.,Ltd sells integrated trade data and AI but as a data service, not enforcement-grade attestations; Densec ID tried item-level traceability with hardware serialization and died - Provenor infers provenance from data instead of tagging items.
- Main risk
- Entity resolution over dirty trade data produces false accusations, and one wrong detention recommendation destroys trust with both customers and regulators.
Five judges
Each judge scores every idea in the catalog with a named rubric; the venture judge decides whether a card is shown at all (4-5 is venture-grade).
Venture investor
5/5
Capital-light, global from day one, with recognized-attestation status and the largest transshipment case corpus creating a compounding regulatory moat as enforcement money lands.
Bootstrapper
4/5
Software margins with a self-serve top-50-supplier screen sold to importers already paying compliance staff, no license needed to start.
Operator
3/5
Detention risk is real for seafood importers, but the card admits it stays a nice-to-have module if enforcement and fines stay light.
Technologist
4/5
Entity resolution linking AIS tracks, customs filings and registries into defensible transshipment claims is hard, and the labeled case corpus compounds per detention.
Risk
3/5
Self-serve subscription across many importers is diversified, but demand is levered to sporadic enforcement and one false detention call destroys the franchise.
trends
3/5
DRL and ILAB grants closing August-September 2026 are concrete enforcement money, but grants are the secondary point and forced-labor screening has been building since 2022.
Similar startups in the directory
Companies whose pitch matches most of the idea's terms (machine, learning, proves, imported, sells, enterprise, import, sourcing): 166 all-time, 30 from the last two years. Same matching as Idea Check.
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The generator's reference companies
Real companies the model named as closest when it wrote the card, with their fate. A check mark is a company the radar could verify in its directory.
Public money in this direction
US federal grants, SBIR/STTR awards and open opportunities from the radar's public-money feed, matched to the idea's terms; the sector totals give the context.
8
grants and programs matching the idea
19
startup-relevant grants in Commerce and marketplaces
$19M
awarded in the sector, tracked
8
opportunities open now in the sector
- A platform for serum antibody repertoire analysis for autoimmune disease diagnosisawardhigh relevance
NIH / NIAID · SBIR phase I · $307K · posted 2026-08-17
- SBIR Phase I: AI-Driven Cloud Application Programming Interface for Quantum-Accurate Materials Simulationawardhigh relevance
National Science Foundation · SBIR Phase I · $305K · posted 2026-08-11
National Science Foundation · SBIR Phase I · $305K · posted 2026-08-11
- SpliceDisco: A Machine Learning Tool for the Identification of Alternative Splicing Events Directly Regulated by Pathological Splicing Factors in Cancerawardhigh relevance
NIH / NCI · SBIR phase II · $890K · posted 2026-08-01
- I-Corps: Translation potential of a platform for the isolation, visualization, and long-term storage of extracellular vesicles (EVs)awardhigh relevance
National Science Foundation · I-Corps · $50K · posted 2026-07-17
- SBIR Phase II: Fostering Growth in Trusting Relationships between Students and Educators with Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning Technologiesawardhigh relevance
National Science Foundation · SBIR Phase II · $1M · posted 2026-07-16
- Development and Validation of a Simulator-based Fundamental Skills Curriculum for Hemodialysis Cannulation Skills Trainingawardhigh relevance
NIH / NIDDK · SBIR phase II · $905K · posted 2026-07-15
- Development of a metabolomics enabled AI/ML platform for discovery of new treatments to enhance drug sensitivity in cancerawardhigh relevance
NIH / NCI · SBIR phase I · $286K · posted 2025-09-22
Market signal
What the radar sees in Commerce and marketplaces: new companies by cohort year, the forming YC batch, and outcomes since the February snapshot.
Commerce and marketplaces · 135 → 114 → 129 → 66 → 27 new companies 2022 → 2026 · 89% aliveYC S26: 5 in this cluster, 2% of the batch (was 1% in X26) (F26 is still forming: 21 listed)Since February, of 419 YC companies here: 4 acquired, 6 shut down, 23 rewrote their pitch
Design attributes
The card is one cell of a designed set: every axis below was chosen before the text was written, and the text had to realize it.
- Buyer
- Enterprise
- Business model
- Software subscription
- Path to 100x
- Creates a new category
- Market size
- $10-100B market
- Capital intensity
- Capital-light (software margins)
- Speed to revenue
- Revenue in 1-3 years
- Technical depth
- Deep tech: ML, hardware, bio
- Go-to-market
- Self-serve
- Moat
- License or regulatory moat
- Geography
- Global from day one
- Regulation
- Some regulation
- Vibe
- Hot space
Listed under
An idea sits in its own sector and in any sector its text clearly touches.
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