New startup ideas · Consumer and commerce · Commerce and marketplaces
startup idea
Switchyard
Marketplace for long-lead datacenter power gear, graded by ML from electrical test data.
Switchyard is a marketplace where operators, EPCs and refurbishers trade transformers, switchgear, breakers and chillers with multi-year lead times, including surplus and decommissioned units.
- Marketplace
- Enterprise
- $10-100B market
- Platform others build on
- US first
5/5
venture judge
3
similar startups, last 2 years (21 all-time)
96%
of 4 nearest real companies still alive
yes
8 matching federal grants and programs
Direction supported by government programs and grants
Test it before you build it
$2,350 · 6 weeks · 25 prospects
For $2,350 and 6 weeks, this test proves datacenter buyers will put a $5,000 refundable hold on a used, lab-tested medium-voltage unit graded by condition class, without an OEM warranty.
Riskiest assumption · An EPC or colo procurement lead facing a 40-90 week quote will commit money to a used medium-voltage unit on the strength of an independent lab test and condition class, without an OEM warranty, rather than keep waiting in the new-equipment queue.
1Focus group: who and where
Director of procurement or preconstruction at a datacenter EPC, electrical contractor or colocation operator with a 2026-2027 buildout, currently quoted 40-90 week lead times on medium-voltage switchgear or pad-mount transformers.
where to find 25 · 7x24 Exchange regional chapter meetings, where colo and EPC facilities people gather monthly; the Infrastructure Masons member community; the Investment Recovery Association member directory for the utility surplus managers who hold the gear; Public Surplus and GovDeals utility auctions to locate real listable units this week.
2Sell first, build later
A specific named surplus unit - for example a 15 kV metal-clad switchgear lineup or 2.5 MVA pad-mount transformer - with a fresh independent NETA test report, DGA results and an assigned condition class, shipped in 6-8 weeks against the 40-90 week new-equipment queue, with a witnessed re-test at delivery.
the ask · Unit price 30-40% below new OEM list (typically $60k-250k per unit); $5,000 refundable hold per unit to reserve it.
a real yes · A real yes is $5,000 moved into escrow or a purchase order visible in the buyer's procurement system with a dated inspection step. 'Send the specs to our engineer' with no hold and no dated next step is not a yes.
3Small experiments
The first one attacks the riskiest assumption; each ends with a number that says whether to run the next.
1. Priced used-unit offer sheet
$1,500 · 21 days
Source 3 real surplus units (a 15 kV switchgear lineup, a pad-mount transformer) from utility auctions or Investment Recovery Association members on consignment, commission a fresh oil sample DGA and package the existing NETA test reports into a one-page spec with an assigned condition class, priced 30-40% below new list with 6-8 week delivery. Pitch it to 15 procurement leads and ask for a $5,000 refundable escrowed hold on a named unit.
keep going if · 2 of 15 pitched buyers place a hold or open a PO in their procurement system
2. Buyer acceptance interviews
$250 · 10 days
Run 15 calls with EPC and colo procurement leads recruited through 7x24 Exchange chapters and Infrastructure Masons: current lead-time quotes, whether they have ever bought used gear, and exactly what evidence would clear a used unit for their project. Attend one chapter meeting in person.
keep going if · 9 of 15 confirm 40+ week quotes and say an independent NETA test plus a 30% discount clears their bar, or name one specific missing proof
3. Utility supply commitments
$600 · 14 days
Call 10 utility investment recovery managers from the Investment Recovery Association directory and pitch consignment listing: they keep the unit in their yard, share test data, and get paid on sale. Visit the most promising yard to verify condition and documentation quality.
keep going if · 4 of 10 agree in writing to list surplus medium-voltage gear on consignment with test records
4Collect a deposit up front
Tesla took $1,000 refundable reservations for the Model 3 and $100 for the Cybertruck before building either: the deposit is the measurement, not the revenue.
$5,000
per prospect, refundable
how · A $5,000 refundable reservation, invoiced and held in a third-party escrow account against a one-page reservation agreement signed by the procurement lead; where the buyer's process cannot cut a check without a vendor number, accept a PO marked 'subject to inspection' with a dated inspection appointment as the equivalent commitment. set up: Stripe Invoicing ↗
what it reserves · An exclusive 30-day hold on the named unit at the locked price, plus a witnessed re-test by the independent lab before shipment.
refund · Refunded in full any time before shipment, or automatically if the witnessed re-test misses the stated condition class.
target · 2 holds or inspection-dated POs from 15 priced pitches within 30 days
Go: build it if
2+ escrowed holds or POs on the 3 listed units, 9+ of 15 buyers accepting lab-graded used gear at a 30% discount, and 4+ utilities consigning - build the grading models on real transaction flow.
Kill: stop if
0 holds after 15 priced pitches on real units, or fewer than 5 of 15 buyers accepting any evidence short of an OEM warranty - the grade is not yet a tradable unit, stop.
5 Scripts to run itoutreach message, landing copy, deposit terms · click to open
outreach message
You are being quoted 60+ weeks on medium-voltage switchgear while your 2027 hall schedule slips. I have a 15 kV metal-clad lineup, decommissioned by a utility, with a fresh NETA test report and DGA, assigned condition class B, priced 35% below new list and shipping in 6-8 weeks. A $5,000 refundable hold, held in escrow, reserves it for 30 days while your engineer inspects and we run a witnessed re-test. Do you have 20 minutes this week to review the test file?
landing page
Datacenter power gear, lab-tested and graded, delivered in weeks not years. A $5,000 refundable hold reserves a NETA-tested unit at 30-40% below new OEM list, shipping in 6-8 weeks. See the three units available now.
deposit terms
Your $5,000 reservation is held in escrow and gives you an exclusive 30-day hold on this unit at the locked price, including a witnessed re-test by the independent lab before shipment. It is refunded in full if you cancel before shipment or if the re-test misses the stated condition class. Balance is due net 30 after delivery and your acceptance inspection.
Would you run this test?
One tap. The yes-share feeds the Demand pillar of this idea's score; nobody sees who answered.
Budgets are out-of-pocket estimates for a team of one to three, US market. Size the deposit to the deal, and check the terms before taking money in a regulated line.
Scorecard
One score that balances how trendy the idea is, the demand for it and its potential for 100x, with competition measured relative to every other idea in the catalog. Recent startup trends first, government priorities second.
67
Idea Score, 0-100 · raw 41.7 x 1.61
Active
competition: more crowded than 52% of ideas · headwind x0.74
+3.5
government priorities, secondary (32 matching grants)
Trend
33
Is the wave forming now? 2025-26 entrants vs 2023-24, rounds since 2025, the sector's live-batch direction, the 2026 trend analyst.
- Entrants 2025-26 vs 2023-24 (similar companies)51
- Rounds announced 2025+ in the sector8
- Sector direction (live batch)0
- 2026 trend analyst75
Demand
60
Does anyone want it? YC's current RFS, companies already paid for something similar, the operator judge, founders' yes-rate in decks, readers who would run the test.
- YC asks for it (current RFS: idea / sector)0
- Someone already pays (similar companies, recent / all-time)100
- Operator judge: real pain50
- Founders' yes-rate in decks91
100x potential
68
Can it return a fund? The venture judge (double weight), market-size and moat axes, neighbours still alive, the technologist judge.
- Venture judge100
- Market size axis67
- Moat axis20
- Neighbours still alive24
- Technologist judge100
Score = 100 x cbrt(Trend x Demand x 100x) x (1 - 0.5 x crowding) + government bonus (max 5), calibrated so the 95th-percentile idea scores 90 (order never changes). A geometric mean: a weak pillar cannot be papered over. Percentiles are among the 272 ideas in the catalog; the terms matched were marketplace, long-lead, datacenter, power, gear, graded, electrical, test.
The idea in full
- What
- Switchyard is a marketplace where operators, EPCs and refurbishers trade transformers, switchgear, breakers and chillers with multi-year lead times, including surplus and decommissioned units. The deep part is the grading engine: models trained on dissolved gas analysis, partial discharge traces, nameplate photos and factory test reports predict remaining life and assign a tradable condition class, which is what makes a used 30 MVA transformer financeable. Independent test labs and refurbishers plug into the grading API and issue certificates on the platform, and deals reach buyers through electrical distributors and EPC procurement teams.
- Why now
- Stoa (yc S26) entered as the market behind AI hardware and Reframe (yc W26) as an AI-native hardware procurement marketplace, both aimed at components and chips; nothing in the 52 companies added in the last two years touches the electrical gear that gates the same buildouts. Jeevy Fabrication (yc X25) shows the same cohort moving into heavy industrial fabrication, and Waybill (yc S26) confirms procurement for hardware teams is a funded lane.
- Wedge: first customer and entry point
- Surplus and decommissioned medium-voltage switchgear from two US utilities, listed to colocation operators through a single regional electrical distributor.
- Path to 100x
- Long-lead electrical equipment for datacenter and grid buildout is a $10-100B annual flow with a secondary market that has no price discovery at all. The 100x case is platform: if the condition class becomes the unit lenders, insurers and EPCs underwrite against, third-party labs and refurbishers build their businesses on Switchyard's grading and the marketplace takes a cut of both the trade and the certification.
- Ceiling
- No moat at the start and a supply shortage that eventually eases: when new gear lead times normalize, the secondary market thins and Switchyard is a cyclical broker.
- Closest real companies, as the generator saw them
- Stoa and Reframe make markets in AI hardware components; Switchyard trades the power equipment that lands months earlier in the same project and cannot be graded without test-data models. Waybill manages procurement and inventory for hardware teams rather than making a market in second-life assets.
- Main risk
- Buyers will not accept a used transformer on a model-issued grade without an OEM warranty, so volume stays in new equipment queues.
Five judges
Each judge scores every idea in the catalog with a named rubric; the venture judge decides whether a card is shown at all (4-5 is venture-grade).
Venture investor
5/5
Capital-light market-making on transformers and switchgear that gate every datacenter buildout, where the ML condition class becomes the unit lenders underwrite.
Bootstrapper
3/5
Capital-light marketplace with EPCs desperate for switchgear, but buyers wanting an OEM warranty over a model-issued grade delays real take rate.
Operator
3/5
Long-lead transformer scarcity is acute and expensive, but underwriting a used 30 MVA unit on a model grade requires lenders and EPCs to move first.
Technologist
5/5
Predicting remaining transformer life from dissolved gas analysis and partial discharge traces is scarce domain ML that gets better with every certified unit.
Risk
3/5
Two sided and unregulated, but a model issued grade on a used 30 MVA transformer carries warranty and insurer acceptance risk with no moat yet.
trends
4/5
The AI-infra cluster doubling to 8% of S26 dates the transformer lead-time squeeze; the card concedes the window closes when supply normalizes.
Similar startups in the directory
Companies whose pitch matches most of the idea's terms (marketplace, long-lead, datacenter, power, gear, graded, electrical, test): 21 all-time, 3 from the last two years. Same matching as Idea Check.
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The generator's reference companies
Real companies the model named as closest when it wrote the card, with their fate. A check mark is a company the radar could verify in its directory.
Public money in this direction
US federal grants, SBIR/STTR awards and open opportunities from the radar's public-money feed, matched to the idea's terms; the sector totals give the context.
8
grants and programs matching the idea
21
startup-relevant grants in Commerce and marketplaces
$20M
awarded in the sector, tracked
1
opportunities open now in the sector
- Advancing High-Density Carbon Fiber Electrode Arrays for Commercial Neurotechnology Applicationsawardhigh relevance
NIH / NIAAA · SBIR phase II · $2M · posted 2026-09-25
- Noninvasive assessment of neurovascular coupling for early diagnosis of cognitive impairmentawardhigh relevance
NIH / NIA · SBIR phase II · $948K · posted 2026-09-21
- Brain-based hearing enhancement: a wearable, noninvasive patch to enhance speech communication and expand treatment access for the hearing impairedawardhigh relevance
NIH / NIA · SBIR phase I · $308K · posted 2026-09-17
- SBIR Phase II: In-Motion Capacitive Wireless Charging System for Material Handling Vehiclesawardhigh relevance
National Science Foundation · SBIR Phase II · $1M · posted 2026-09-03
NIH / NHLBI · SBIR phase II · $848K · posted 2026-09-01
- SBIR Phase II: Understanding the Lifetime of Perovskite/Silicon Tandems for Vehicle-Integrated Photovoltaic and Residential Applicationsawardhigh relevance
National Science Foundation · SBIR Phase II · $1M · posted 2026-08-24
National Science Foundation · SBIR Phase II · $1M · posted 2026-08-24
- SBIR Phase II: Thermoformable Technical Ceramics for Thermal Management Solutions - Scaled Manufacturing Viabilityawardhigh relevance
National Science Foundation · SBIR Phase II · $1M · posted 2026-08-24
Market signal
What the radar sees in Commerce and marketplaces: new companies by cohort year, the forming YC batch, and outcomes since the February snapshot.
Commerce and marketplaces · 145 → 119 → 130 → 67 → 34 new companies 2022 → 2026 · 87% aliveYC F26 live: 0 in this cluster, 0% of the batch (was 2% in S26)Since February, of 419 YC companies here: 4 acquired, 7 shut down, 28 rewrote their pitch
Design attributes
The card is one cell of a designed set: every axis below was chosen before the text was written, and the text had to realize it.
- Buyer
- Enterprise
- Business model
- Marketplace
- Path to 100x
- Platform others build on
- Market size
- $10-100B market
- Capital intensity
- Capital-light (software margins)
- Speed to revenue
- Revenue in 1-3 years
- Technical depth
- Deep tech: ML, hardware, bio
- Go-to-market
- Partners and channels
- Moat
- No moat yet
- Geography
- US first
- Regulation
- Unregulated
- Vibe
- Hot space
Listed under
An idea sits in its own sector and in any sector its text clearly touches.
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